Canadian Energy Outlook 2021
Summary
This Outlook is a modelling effort that analyzes possible transformation pathways required to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in Canada, with a special focus on the energy system. The modelling optimizes scenarios with regard to cost, constrained by specific GHG reduction targets.
Three different time horizons to reach net-zero are considered (2045, 2050 and 2060), and are compared with two reference scenarios with no GHG reduction constrained (REF, which is business as usual with all measures and policies currently in place, and CP30, which mainly adds the planned carbon price increase schedule to 2030). To simplify the following, only the 2050 net-zero scenario (NZ50) is shown.
The starting point
Canada’s
energy system
The unique characteristics of Canada’s economy and energy system:
One of the world’s largest energy producers and exporters; oil and gas alone contributes to 10.2% to the country’s GDP
[Sections 2.1.2 and 4.1]
Among the leading countries in the share of low-carbon sources in its electricity production (80%)
Overall per capita energy use for the country is almost double the OECD average, and GDP energy intensity is well above OECD average as well
Significant variation across provinces in both energy production and in the energy mix used by sectors
[Sections 2.8 and 3.2]
GHG emissions come overwhelmingly from energy-related activities
[Section 5.1]
World Rank
| Energy Resource | Proved Reserve/Capacity | Production | Exports |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Crude Oil |
3 |
4 |
4 |
|
Uranium |
3 |
2 |
4 |
|
Hydroelectricity |
3 |
3 |
- |
|
Electricity |
8 |
6 |
3 |
|
Coal
|
16 |
13 |
7 |
|
Natural Gas |
17 |
4 |
6 |
GHG emissions are still increasing in many sectors
No Data Found
Transport and oil and gas production are the two leading sources of emissions, and show the two most rapid increases since 1990 as well
[Section 5.1]
Residential and commercial buildings emissions have also grown by 10% between 2016 and 2019
[Section 5.1]
Those increases offset reductions in other sectors:
The country’s GHG emissions have decreased by only 1.1% from 2005 to 2019
[Section 5.1]
