10.8 Nova Scotia


Figure 10.8 – Nova Scotia’s energy profile #

GHG emissions across scenarios
Emission reductions by sector in NZ50
Electricity generation by source
Biomass production by source

Key developments for Nova Scotia:

  • Emissions in the REF scenario climb by 21% on the 2060 horizon, slightly below the national average. This growth is dominated by electricity production and transport. 
  • CP30 projects a barely 1% reduction in emissions by 2030, reaching 16% in 2060, again well below the national average. The main difference with respect to REF is in electricity production.
  • For NZ scenarios, almost half of emissions are eliminated by 2030, increasing the production of BECCS electricity in Nova Scotia. It is interesting to note that thermal generation remains at levels similar to today even in net-zero scenarios. Therefore, the rapid and significant shift in emissions associated with the power sector in these scenarios is not through decarbonization, but from the use of BECCS, even though electricity production is multiplied by 2.3 to 3 by 2060. After this change in the first decade, the residential sector is next to provide emission reductions, between 2030 and 2040 in net-zero scenarios. Transport takes more time, as it does in most other provinces. 
  • The rapid shift from an emission-intensive sector to the opposite (in net terms) for power production also results in negative emissions, starting as early as the late 2020s in NZ45 and NZ50. This continues over the entire time horizon, although to different extents depending on the specific NZ scenario. Along with some DAC, the province is net negative by 2050 in NZ45 and NZ50 and by 2060 in NZ60 (between -3 and -5 MtCO2e), once transport has reduced its emissions to their lowest level
  • Almost all BECCS is used for electricity generation, with only very little hydrogen production. 
  • Nuclear SMRs appear from 2040 in net-zero scenarios. Interestingly, while the size of this production at first seems to depend on the net-zero schedule (with NZ45 more aggressively developing this production compared with NZ50 or NZ60), these differentials remain over time until 2060 
  • Biomass production, which increases more modestly in Nova Scotia compared with other provinces, is almost only due to the use of more forest residues. Production evolves rapidly in net-zero scenarios after 2040 and presents very different patterns depending on the scenario, suggesting the competitivity of other emission reduction opportunities elsewhere in the economy.
Section’s figures and tables