Figure 10.7 – New Brunswick’s energy profile #
Key developments for New Brunswick:
- In the REF scenario, emissions decrease from 2016, largely due to the transformation of electricity production. After a minimum in 2030 (-34% with respect to 2016), emissions increase by about 10% over the next 30 years. This substantial decline affects NZ scenarios for 2030 as the target is reached without much additional effort.
- For 2030, CP30 therefore shows a faster reduction in emissions than NZ60 and NZ50, at -46% with respect to 2016, reaching a reduction of 65% by 2060.
- Following a reduction in electricity production associated with the closure of a thermal plant after 2016, CP30 and NZ scenarios project a doubling of production by 2060, which is slightly below the national average.
- No nuclear SMRs appear in order to replace conventional nuclear generation, which is eliminated from 2040. Expansion thus comes from wind and solar, as well as some biomass used for BECCS generation.
- The results for New Brunswick are an intensified version of some trends observed across the provinces: while power production is responsible for 29% of the province’s emissions today, it is almost all decarbonized in net-zero scenarios as well as CP30 by 2030, even contributing negative emissions in NZ45. This continues to evolve away from REF after 2030, holding steady in CP30 and with negative emissions in all net-zero scenarios from the 2030s. This trend helps make the province net negative (as early as 2040 in NZ45) by a significant margin, with almost 5 MtCO2e negative emissions and less than 2 MtCO2e remaining in NZs in 2060
- Most of the transport decarbonization occurs from 2035, while emissions tied to oil and gas production remain significant due to the presence of the very large refining operations at the Irving facility (the largest in Canada); net-zero scenarios require a reduction in these activities
- Some BECCS hydrogen production results in negative emissions, although in much smaller quantities than BECCS electricity generation
- Biomass production almost doubles in net-zero scenarios and CP30 by 2040, a more sizeable increase than in REF, almost all from forest residues.