10.6 Quebec


Figure 10.6 – Quebec’s energy profile #

GHG emissions across scenarios
Emission reductions by sector in NZ50
Electricity generation by source
Biomass production by source

Key developments for Quebec:

  • Emissions in the REF scenario grow by an inadequate 5% by 2060, well below the national average (+2 %); growth in transport and industrial combustion are compensated by reductions in agricultural and building heating.
  • CP30 shows a clear but limited departure from REF with emissions dropping by 11% in 2030, followed by a slow reduction to represent 75% of 2016 emissions in 2060. Over the entire period, the largest impact of carbon pricing is on waste and transport emissions.
  • More than half of Quebec’s emissions are produced by transport at the present time, with a power sector already completely decarbonized and virtually no production of fossil fuels. As a result, in NZ scenarios, early reductions come from the industrial sector (including from aluminum smelting) and transport, although reductions in the latter are more substantial after 2030. 
  • Some negative emissions are noted as soon as 2030 from electricity production in NZ45, and in all net-zero scenarios from the 2030s. When nearing their respective time point for net-zero emissions, NZ50 and NZ60 both show negative emissions, more or less breaking even with remaining emissions (mainly from transport and agriculture), while NZ45 uses DAC on the longer-term allowing it to make the province net negative in terms of emissions from the late 2050s
  • Quebec’s electricity sector does not build more hydroelectric facilities, but wind and solar energy expand from 2040, along with some biomass, allowing the province’s sector to attain negative emissions in the 2030s (even before, in the case of NZ45). Overall expansion in relative terms is smaller than in other provinces, reaching 40% at most in NZ45 in 2060 compared with today. It is also worth noting that production in REF remains constant over the entire time period.
  • Meeting increasing electricity demand with a smaller expansion of the province’s generation is managed through a different trade profile. Electricity receipts from other provinces increase by 50% in net-zero scenarios, much less than in REF (+143% compared with today). Moreover, exports to both other provinces and the United States diminish over time. The net result is fewer net exports to help meet peak demand over time without having to resort to additional production. 
  • Biomass production almost doubles in REF by 2040, while the increase is even more substantial in other scenarios. Although significant in absolute terms, these increases are smaller than in other provinces in relative terms, as is the case in Ontario. Forest residues similarly increase from their current dominant share in all five scenarios, while the rest of the expansion comes from crop residues and municipal waste from the late 2040s. However, the use of this production is somewhat different than in Ontario, with a smaller quantity going to biofuels production in the short term, but with an increase in industrial use in net-zero scenarios, similarly to Ontario. BECCS electricity production appears early (before 2030 in NZ45). Later on, net-zero scenarios present a profile that diverges away from REF and CP30: after 2040, both biofuels production and industrial use shrink in net-zero scenarios, while electricity and hydrogen production expand to help with negative emissions. Depending on the NZ scenario, Québec emissions by 2060 drop from neutral (+1 MtCO2e) in NZ60 and NZ50 to slightly negative (-5 MtCO2e) for NZ45.
Section’s figures and tables