Figure 10.4 – Manitoba’s energy profile #
Key developments for Manitoba:
- Following current trends (REF), emissions are projected to grow by 72% by 2060, three times more than the national average (+25%), largely due to agriculture and transport.
- Within CP30, emissions are essentially constant over the next 40 years, with growth in agriculture compensated by reductions in building heating, even though this sector accounts for only 11% of emissions today.
- NZ scenarios lead to relatively slow reductions. By 2030, they range from 5% (NZ60) to 14% (NZ50) and 24% (NZ45). The transformation then accelerates and by 2050 both NZ50 and NZ45 show an overall small negative emission balance (about 1 MtCO2e). Very little comes from BECCS electricity production and BECCS hydrogen production is instead the main source; no DAC is used, and the province is net negative in terms of remaining emissions in 2050 and 2060
- Transport provides the majority of emission reductions, starting mainly after 2030. As in Saskatchewan, this results in very low emissions from this sector compared to REF (in 2060, they are around 95% less than REF in net-zero scenarios).
- Most of the remaining cuts in emissions derive from industry, while residential and commercial buildings are almost completely decarbonized by 2030
- Electricity production is largely stable over the next decade and then grows continuously by about 100% by 2060, slightly below the national average. Manitoba’s electricity sector is already decarbonized, using hydroelectricity to meet the overwhelming majority of its needs. Over time, in net-zero scenarios, some of the expansion comes from wind after 2030, as in most other provinces, but over 40% of the expansion is provided by additional hydroelectric capacity
- This additional capacity, as well as a move away from electricity exports to the United States, helps the province deliver around 10% of its electricity production to other provinces after 2040
- Biomass production follows a pattern similar to Saskatchewan’s, with little forest residues compared with other provinces; the significant expansion from the 2020s—but especially after 2030—is due to the maximization of crop residues from agriculture. This goes to biofuels production and, to a much larger extent, hydrogen production, while some biogas from municipal waste is produced in NZ45.