Figure 10.3 Saskatchewan’s energy profile #
Key developments for Saskatchewan:
- In REF, emissions are projected to slowly rise by 16% in 2050-2060, after a small dip of 6% in 2030 associated with the transformation of electricity production.
- CP30 brings a slightly deeper GHG reduction by 2030 (16%); emissions then remain at the same level until 2050, after which they drop further, representing 70% of the 2016 level. Over that time, reductions in electricity production and building heating are compensated by growth in transport and fugitive emissions.
- With a rapid transformation of electricity production and the reduction in oil and gas production, NZ scenarios show deeper GHG reductions than the Canadian average: 50%, 57% and 62% for NZ60, NZ50 and NZ45 in 2030, reaching negative value (-7 MtCO2e through capture) by 2060. Most other sectors decarbonize slowly and at a largely comparable pace.
- Industry (outside of energy production) is decarbonized after 2030 and, with CCS, becomes a net absorber of emissions, capturing and sequestering up to 19 MtCO2e for NZ50 and NZ45 in 2050. Transport sees rapid reductions even before 2030 and is almost completely decarbonized by 2050, contrary to the national average.
- Once NZ is reached, agriculture is the source of the overwhelming majority of remaining emissions in Saskatchewan, with only modest reductions from 2016 levels and around 40% lower emissions in 2050 and 2060 in net-zero scenarios, compared with REF
- In Saskatchewan, there is no DAC and very limited BECCS electricity production, but the very large increase in biomass use from agricultural residues allows for a significant BECCS production of hydrogen, along with some biofuels. The resulting negative emissions are significant enough to overcompensate remaining emissions from agriculture as the province is net negative in GHG emissions after net-zero is reached
- Like Alberta, Saskatchewan has one of the most emission-intensive electricity generation profiles, a challenge that is quite different from that in most other provinces. While decarbonizing this sector takes time, a good portion is achieved by 2030 and even more by 2040, primarily through the significant expansion of wind, which represents up to 70% of all electricity generated by 2060, and to a lesser extent solar. Some thermal powerplants remain even in 2060 and electricity trade remains marginal, with the province’s power mix able to meet demand within the province
- Saskatchewan’s biomass production comprises little forest residues compared with other provinces. The significant expansion from the 2020s—but especially after 2030—comes from the maximization of crop residues from agriculture. Compared with its western neighbours, these residues contribute to the production of biofuels and, to a much larger extent, hydrogen production, with virtually no biogas from municipal waste.