Figure 10.12 – Northwest Territories’ energy profile #
Key developments for the Northwest Territories:
- Of the three territories, the Northwest Territories presents the most diversified emission profile. While the largest source is transport, oil and gas production, buildings, thermal electricity and industry all contribute an important share of the rest.
- The REF scenario projects a decrease in GHG emissions that plateaus in 2050 (-41%), before inching slightly up in 2060, 37% below the 2016 level. This reduction derives mainly from a decrease in oil and gas production and the partial decarbonization of heating spaces away from heating oil and natural gas.
- CP30 accelerates this transformation, with reductions of 19% by 2030, and even 62% by 2060, as space heating fully decarbonizes and electricity partially does too.
- In 2030, there is not much difference between CP30 and NZ scenarios. By 2060, all NZ see some negative emissions with BECCS, almost reaching carbon neutrality with between 0 (NZ60) and 0.25 MtCO2e (NZ45).
- Oil production is eliminated by 2030 even in REF, but electricity emissions double before 2030 (even in net-zero scenarios). Overall reductions for this period are provided by the contribution of the buildings sector (in net-zero scenarios)
- After 2030, buildings achieve almost full decarbonization and thermal electricity generation decreases, reducing emissions from power generation. In net-zero scenarios, this is compensated not only by increased hydroelectric production, but also by a small contribution of wind, biomass and decentralized electricity.
- The evolution of biomass production is also an interesting aspect here: only NZ45 sees an increase by 2030, although it is very significant in relative terms as it all derives from forest residues. Other scenarios match this increase by 2040; the only change afterward in net-zero scenarios is through the addition of some municipal organic waste in NZ45. In net-zero scenarios, all of this biomass is used for BECCS electricity production after 2040, except for NZ45, which also produces from hydrogen with BECCS.