Figure 10.10 – Newfoundland and Labrador’s energy profile #
Key developments for Newfoundland and Labrador:
- Emissions in the REF scenario decrease rapidly between 2016 and 2030 (-36%) due to reductions in oil production and the halving of the remaining electric thermal production. This trend continues, with overall reductions of 68% by 2060, as the remaining buildings are fully decarbonized and transport emissions are cut by 55%.
- Because of the large reductions projected for REF, the relative effect of CP30 is slight. Nevertheless, with respect to 2016, emissions fall by 40%, with reduction reaching 73% in 2060, simply accelerating the trend in all sectors.
- By 2060, all NZ scenarios converge with net-positive emissions for the province (around 2 MtCO2e), following reductions of 82% with respect to 2016.
- Similarly to Prince Edward Island, the small size of Newfoundland and Labrador’s industrial sector means it contribute less to the province’s emissions, while transport constitutes a large share of emissions and the residential sector produces some as well. However, similarities end here, given the province’s oil sector, which produces a third of emissions today. Emission from this sector are the first to decline from the 2020s (including in REF). Buildings, including commercial, also decarbonize quickly and almost eliminate their emissions by 2030 as they switch away from heating oil.
- Transport emissions, chiefly from personal vehicles, are cut by close to half their current levels by 2030 in NZ45 and NZ50, a trend that continues on the longer term. Contrary to other provinces, this also occurs in REF and CP30, and even though remaining emissions are higher than in NZs, they are less than half today’s levels by 2050 or 2060. This highlights how the province is facing very few low-hanging fruit to help its emission reduction efforts, short of eliminating oil production, and without the possibility to achieve reductions in the power sector.
- BECCS is scarcely used for electricity production in some net-zero scenarios and the province produces no hydrogen. As a result, very few negative emissions are generated, making it net positive from 2050.
- Power is produced almost exclusively from hydroelectricity after 2030, with a very small quantity of biomass used as well for BECCS generation. Hydroelectric generation rises over time, more rapidly in net-zero scenarios (+50% in 2060) but also in REF (+17%) and CP30 (+20%). A large share of this increase is exported to other provinces.
- All scenarios except REF show a doubling of biomass production from forest residues, with net-zero scenarios adding municipal waste used for biogas from 2040. Given almost no BECCS production, almost all biomass is used for biofuels production.